The Hidden Pattern That Explains Why Associations Rise, Stall, and Collapse

Across the world, many associations are quietly dying.

Not with a bang – but with a slow fade. A creeping irrelevance. A loss of energy, clarity, and purpose. They still hold meetings. They still run conferences. But the spark is gone. And most don’t even realise it’s happening – until it’s too late.

Sound extreme? It’s not. It’s history.

There’s a centuries-old pattern playing out in boardrooms, strategy sessions, and member communities right now – one that mirrors the rise and fall of civilisations. It’s called the empire cycle, and once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

Originally used to explain how great empires grow, peak, and decline, the cycle has startling relevance for associations. It offers not just a lens to diagnose where you are – but a wake-up call for what comes next.

Because the truth is, if your association is stuck, stagnant, or slowly slipping into comfort… you may already be deep in the cycle.

Let’s break it down.

📜 Where the Empire Cycle Comes From

The “empire cycle” isn’t just an abstract metaphor. It was introduced by British historian (and former army officer) Sir John Glubb in his 1976 essay The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival. After studying over 3,000 years of history, Glubb identified a striking pattern: civilisations as different as the Roman, Persian, and British empires all followed a similar trajectory over an average of 250 years.

Each began with passion and pioneering energy. They grew, flourished, and became dominant forces. But eventually, they softened. Internal strength gave way to external appearances. Purpose gave way to comfort. And decline followed.

He mapped this decline in seven distinct stages:

1. 🌱 The Age of Pioneers (Outburst). The raw, courageous beginning. This is the stage of sacrifice, risk-taking, and bold vision. Empires (and associations) are built by those who say, "There has to be a better way," and then commit everything to making it real.
2. 🛡️ The Age of Conquests. Now the empire pushes outward – expanding reach, establishing influence, and building foundations. Not always through war; often through influence, alliances, and movement-building.
3. 💼 The Age of Commerce. Stability brings prosperity. Trade, wealth, and structure rise. But so does complexity. Systems are formalised, and roles are professionalised. The momentum continues, but the mission becomes more managed.
4. 💎 The Age of Affluence. With wealth and comfort comes a softening of drive. Luxury and reputation replace hunger and hustle. Risk is avoided. Maintenance replaces movement.
5. 🧠 The Age of Intellect. Now come the debates, white papers, and think tanks. Intellectual activity flourishes, but it often disconnects from meaningful action. The system becomes self-referential.
6. 😬 The Age of Decadence. Courage gives way to cynicism. Civic duty fades. Infighting grows. Energy is spent defending tradition, not pursuing purpose. Everything slows down.
7. 🏩 The Fall. Collapse comes – sometimes suddenly, sometimes through slow erosion. The causes vary, but the pattern is predictable. And for many, it comes as a shock.

🧭 The Empire Cycle: How It Shows Up in Associations

Here’s how Glubb’s seven-stage model plays out in the life of an association:

1. 🌱 The Age of Pioneers: Purpose Ignited. Every great association starts with a group of passionate people who see a gap and say, “We have to do something.” It’s raw, grassroots, and driven by purpose over process. Budgets are tiny, but belief is huge. Signs: Founders with fire in their bellies. Rapid early growth. Everything feels mission-first and member-powered.
2. 📈 The Age of Growth: Momentum Builds. The association gains traction. Formal structures appear. Systems are implemented. Events begin. Membership expands beyond the original core. Signs: Strategic plans, national visibility, early staff hires, steady revenue growth.
3. 💰 The Age of Prosperity: The Golden Era. The association becomes a known and trusted leader. Advocacy wins stack up. Conferences thrive. It’s stable, respected, and professionally managed. Signs: Surplus budgets, high-profile partnerships, polished branding, pride in legacy.
4. 🛋️ The Age of Affluence: Comfort Creeps In. Success breeds comfort. Legacy programs linger. Risk aversion sets in. Innovation slows. The original mission may still be on the wall, but it no longer drives decisions. Signs: Bureaucracy increases. “We’ve always done it this way” becomes a default response. New ideas stall in committees.
5. 🤔 The Age of Intellect: Strategy Over Substance. More talking, less doing. Committees multiply. Reports and strategy decks abound, but bold action is rare. Members disengage as the organisation focuses inward. Signs: Over-reliance on consultants, endless planning cycles, disconnect from frontline member experience. 
6. ⚠️ The Age of Decadence: Decline in Disguise. The brand may still hold weight, but the engine is sputtering. Internal conflict rises. Staff burn out. Younger members don’t see the relevance. Yet from the outside, things still look fine. Signs: Falling engagement, stagnant offerings, declining trust, reliance on reserves.
7. 🏚️ The Fall: Obsolescence or Collapse. Some associations fade quietly. Others collapse more suddenly – through failed governance, financial crises, or an external disruption that finds them unprepared. Either way, the fall usually feels “sudden”… even though the warning signs were there for years.

But here’s the twist: the fall usually comes as a shock to those inside – because they’ve mistaken legacy for relevance.

 🔄 Can the Cycle Be Broken?

Yes – but not by accident. 

The empire cycle is a pattern, not a prophecy. And associations, unlike empires, have something powerful on their side: conscious leadership. If you can recognise where your association sits on the cycle, you can choose to renew rather than decline. That means:

• Reconnecting with your founding purpose
• Replacing bureaucracy with responsiveness
• Daring to innovate before decline forces you to
• Involving members in shaping value, not just consuming it
• Making hard calls about legacy programs that no longer serve

Renewal doesn’t mean starting over. It means returning to what made you relevant in the first place – with fresh eyes and renewed courage.

💬 Which Stage Are You In?

Every association is somewhere on the cycle. The question is: where? And more importantly – what are you doing about it? 

If your strategy isn’t shifting behaviour, if your members are disengaging, or if your board is avoiding hard calls, you may be closer to decline than you think. But here’s the good news: the early stages are always available to those with the courage to act.

Let’s not just study history. Let’s learn from it – and lead through it.

📣 Thinking About Your Strategic Direction? Let’s Talk. 

If your association is at a crossroads – or you suspect it might be deeper in the cycle than you’d like to admit – now is the time to act. Whether you’re planning a reset, refreshing your member value proposition, or overhauling your strategy entirely, I’d be glad to help you make sense of the path ahead. I work with associations of all shapes and sizes to navigate complexity, realign with purpose, and reignite momentum. If that’s what you need right now, let’s start the conversation. 📧 [email protected] 📞 +61 (0) 413 190 197

You don’t have to wait for a crisis to do something bold. Sometimes all it takes is the right nudge at the right moment. This might be yours.