Making Better Decisions in Uncertain Times

We are living in a world of increasing complexity and relentless change. New technologies like AI arrive before we’ve even finished adapting to the last big shift. Government regulations move unpredictably. Member expectations for value are rising – faster than many boards or committees can respond. And event models, once a reliable revenue source, are under constant pressure.

Association leadership has never been more complex. The tools and strategies that worked just five years ago aren’t guaranteed to work today. And yet, in the face of that complexity, it’s tempting to double down on familiar solutions – more committees, more reports, another round of consultation – hoping that old approaches will stick in a new environment.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: they often don’t.

This is where the Cynefin Framework, developed by Dave Snowden, comes in. It doesn’t give you a step-by-step manual – but it does give you a way to make sense of the mess. Think of it as a map: it helps you understand the type of challenge you’re facing, so you can decide whether to rely on best practice, call in the experts, experiment your way forward, or take decisive action in a crisis.

The Five Domains of Cynefin – Through the Lens of Associations

Rather than treating all problems the same, Cynefin divides challenges into five domains. Each one reflects a different kind of reality – and in a world that is increasingly dynamic, knowing which domain you’re in can make the difference between moving forward and spinning in circles.

1. Clear (Obvious)

These are the straightforward parts of association life. Cause and effect are obvious, and best practice applies.

• Example: Renewing memberships, processing event registrations, or routine compliance reporting.
• What to do: Standardise and streamline. Automate what you can, and keep tweaking for efficiency.

Even in times of turbulence, there’s relief in having parts of the work that simply need to be kept tidy and predictable.

2. Complicated

There’s a right answer here too, but it takes expertise and analysis to find it.

• Example: Developing a new membership pricing model, designing a CPD framework, or conducting a financial audit.
• What to do: Don’t guess. Bring in experts, weigh up the evidence, and apply good practice.

Imagine asking your board to design a new office building without an architect – complicated problems remind us that expertise is still non-negotiable.

3. Complex

This is where most of today’s association challenges sit. Cause and effect only become clear in hindsight, and solutions emerge through trial, error, and adaptation.

• Example: Building member engagement, shifting culture, or navigating advocacy in a volatile political climate.
• What to do: Experiment. Run pilots. Gather feedback. Allow patterns to emerge and adapt as you go.

If you’ve ever had three committees all pushing for different advocacy positions at once, you know this space. Complex problems don’t need certainty – they need leaders willing to experiment and learn.

4. Chaotic

Sometimes the pace of change is so abrupt it tips into chaos. No time to analyse – immediate action is required.

• Example: A data breach, a sudden regulatory shock, or a reputational crisis.
• What to do: Act decisively to stabilise. Communicate clearly. Once things are under control, shift into the complex domain to explore long-term fixes.

Think of it like triage in the emergency room – stop the bleeding first, diagnose later.

5. Confused (Aporetic)

This is when you don’t yet know what you’re dealing with – a space many associations find themselves in when the environment changes too quickly to categorise.

• Example: Responding to the rise of AI, or facing a disruptive competitor.
• What to do: Break the issue apart. Some pieces will be clear, some complicated, some complex. Deal with each accordingly.

In times of rapid change, leaders often land here first. The key is not to stay paralysed – start sorting, testing, and moving.

Why Cynefin Matters Right Now

The reason Cynefin is so powerful for association CEOs is that it names the reality you’re already living.

• It stops the “one-size-fits-all” trap. Not every problem needs another policy or taskforce.
• It legitimises experimentation. Complex challenges can’t be solved with neat plans – and this framework gives you language to explain that to your board.
• It sharpens governance conversations. Directors can be clearer about when to rely on best practice, when to seek expert input, and when to support iteration.
• It builds resilience. By recognising chaos when it hits, you can act quickly rather than freeze.

At its core, Cynefin gives you permission to lead differently – in a way that matches the unpredictable environment associations now operate in.

How to Apply It in Practice

So how do you bring this into your own leadership?

• Name the domain. When facing a challenge, ask: “Is this clear, complicated, complex, or chaotic?”
• Match your approach. Don’t overengineer the simple, and don’t oversimplify the complex.
• Adapt as things shift. Problems move between domains. A crisis stabilises, a complex issue becomes clearer. Stay flexible.
• Bring others along. Teach the framework to your board and staff. Shared language leads to better, faster decisions.

Final Thought

We’re not going back to a simpler world. Associations will continue to face accelerating change, rising complexity, and the occasional plunge into chaos. The question isn’t whether we can avoid it – it’s whether we can navigate it well.

And this is where the Cynefin Framework earns its place in your leadership toolkit. It won’t give you all the answers, but it will stop you wasting time on mismatched solutions. It will give you a language to help your board and staff understand why you sometimes need expertise, sometimes need experiments, and sometimes need fast, decisive action.

Because in the end, leading an association isn’t about being the hero with all the answers. It’s about being the navigator – reading the waters, adjusting the sails, and steering your people through uncertainty. Cynefin gives you the map.

And in times like these, that map may be the most powerful tool an association leader can carry.